The concept of intra-elite competition, as outlined by Peter Turchin in End Times helps us better understand the dynamics that precede revolutions and large-scale societal upheavals. Rather than seeing the elite as a monolithic entity, Turchin—and others like Jack A. Goldstone—highlight the fractures within the elite class that create opportunities for revolutionary change. As we examine the present-day context, we can see many of these dynamics at play.

Intra-Elite Competition in Today’s Society

In modern times, political and economic elites are far from unified. Different factions within the elite often vie for control, power, and influence. These elites may represent political parties, corporate entities, or influential social movements, each with its own vision for the country’s direction. When competition between these elite factions intensifies, it can create a fertile ground for discontent and collective action to emerge.

Today, the discontent within the elite class mirrors some of the characteristics Goldstone and Turchin describe. Whether in business, media, or politics, there are growing rifts between established powers and those who seek to challenge the status quo. This competition manifests as

• Political Polarization: The U.S. and other nations are experiencing significant political divisions within the ruling class, often played out in public forums. Competing ideologies within political parties, as well as challenges from populist movements, show that elites are anything but unified.
• Economic Elites Competing for Influence: The growing power of tech giants, financial institutions, and traditional industries demonstrates a fierce struggle for dominance within the elite ranks. This competition sometimes spills over into policy decisions, public opinion, and regulation battles, further driving division within the establishment.
• Social and Cultural Divides: Elites in education, media, and the cultural industries are also experiencing increasing divisions. These elites hold significant sway over public narratives, and when they fracture, the public often becomes more polarized. Competing visions of justice, equity, and national identity, for example, fuel tensions between elites and the general populace.

Brewing Discontent: The Role of the Masses

Though it’s true, as Goldstone points out, that revolutions aren’t typically initiated by the poorest in society, widespread grievances among the general population serve as vital fuel for elite-driven change. In today’s context, a few key grievances stand out:

• Economic Inequality: Many people feel left behind despite a booming stock market and technological advances. The gap between the wealthiest elites and the rest of society widens, creating a sense of unfairness and frustration. These economic disparities can erode trust in the existing system and lead people to support alternative, more radical solutions.
• Political Disillusionment: With elections just weeks away, the public is increasingly polarized and disillusioned by both major political parties. Voter turnout and engagement may likely rise due to anger, fear, and a desire for change. The political messaging of many candidates focuses more on fear-mongering and demonizing the opposition than on offering hopeful, constructive visions for the future. This disillusionment feeds into a general consensus that the system is broken and that dramatic change is necessary.
• Social Unrest and Cultural Shifts: Widespread social movements, protests, and clashes over cultural issues have amplified in recent years. From racial justice movements to debates over free speech and identity politics, people are feeling increasingly alienated from one another. These movements are often driven by elite competition, as different factions vie for cultural dominance.

The Need for a Schelling Point

As mentioned, revolutions don’t occur simply because there is widespread discontent. They require a Schelling point—an individual or organization that acts as a focal point around which people can coordinate and unify. Today, we see competing forces attempting to play this role, both from within and outside traditional institutions:

• Populist Leaders: In recent years, populist politicians like Donald Trump have emerged; rallying crowds of people who feel disillusioned with the existing political system. These leaders often position themselves as outsiders, though they may come from elite backgrounds, and present themselves as the voice of “the people” against corrupt elites.
• Social Movements: Beyond individual leaders, grassroots movements—often fueled by social media—are emerging as potential Schelling points. Movements such as Black Lives Matter, environmental activism, and various anti-establishment groups attempt to galvanize mass action against the perceived failures of the current system.
• Cultural Figures: Cultural leaders or influencers also serve as rallying points. Figures who speak to widespread frustrations with the system, such as activists, intellectuals, or even celebrities, can unify disparate groups by offering a clear critique of the current state of affairs.

When Do Elites Defect?

A critical factor in whether a revolution succeeds is the defection of key elites, particularly in the military, political leadership, or corporate power structures. Elites defect when they no longer believe the existing system benefits them, or when they sense an opportunity to gain more power through aligning with popular movements.

In today’s context, elite defection could come in various forms:

• Political Leaders: Elected officials, particularly those facing political survival threats, may begin to distance themselves from established parties or institutions to align with emerging political movements. This could lead to factional splits within parties or unexpected alliances.
• Corporate Leaders: Business elites, especially those in industries undergoing rapid change or regulation (such as tech or energy), may begin to support policies or movements that promise to disrupt the status quo, particularly if they sense that doing so will protect their interests in a new system.
• Military or Law Enforcement: Defection from key institutional bodies, such as the military, would be a significant turning point. Historically, revolutions have only succeeded when these elites either refuse to act against the people or actively side with revolutionaries.

Conclusion: The Brewing Revolution

As we look ahead, it’s clear that the conditions for significant social upheaval are present. Intra-elite competition is heating up, and the general population’s grievances are growing. Whether these forces will converge into a full-blown revolution depends on whether a unifying figure or movement can emerge as a Schelling point, and whether key elites are willing to defect from the current system.

However, it’s important to remember that revolutions are unpredictable and often take time to unfold. In today’s rapidly changing world, the dynamics of intra-elite competition and public discontent are constantly evolving. As the election nears and emotions heighten, it remains to be seen whether we are witnessing the early stages of a transformative shift—or just another cycle of heightened tension that ultimately subsides without systemic change.

What do YOU think…are we on the road to revolution? Sound off below!